Two strong months lie ahead for the S&P 500 – should you buy?
The second month of the year ends today, and normally this would be a trading week marked by the Non-Farm Payrolls report in the United States. Only this time is different.
The payroll report is scheduled only on March 10, and not on this upcoming Friday. Because jobs are released the third Friday after the week that includes the survey, typically on the 12th. As February is a shorter month, the report will only be out at the end of next week.
So with the typical consolidation ahead of the NFP out of the picture, can stocks rally? Is there any reason to be bullish on the S&P 500?
Historical data says investors should buy stocks.
March and April are historically good for the S&P 500
The bearish price action in the last months pushed many investors out of the stock market. But history tells us that this might be the right time to buy stocks for at least a couple of reasons.
First, March and April are two of the best months for the index. For instance, on average, March’s performance has been positive in the last decade.
Second, March and April tend to perform best in a pre-election year.
To these, we might add one curious technical setup. The S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average for 25 consecutive days. It is rare to spend all this time above the 200-day moving average in a bear market – so is the bull market here?
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